Solar Panel Price Trends
2023-2026 Historical Analysis
Where solar panel prices have been, where they are now, and what's driving them. Data from JUSTSOLAR factory, updated quarterly. All prices in $/Watt FOB Shanghai.
Current Prices (2026 Q1)
FOB Shanghai pricing · Bulk order quantities (1+ container) · Contact Frank for exact current pricing.
Historical Price Trend (2023-2026)
| Period | TOPCon 600W | TOPCon 640W | TOPCon 730W | HJT 730W |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q1 | $0.23/W | $0.24/W | $0.25/W | $0.30/W |
| 2023 Q4 | $0.18/W | $0.19/W | $0.20/W | $0.24/W |
| 2024 Q2 | $0.14/W | $0.15/W | $0.16/W | $0.20/W |
| 2024 Q4 | $0.12/W | $0.13/W | $0.14/W | $0.17/W |
| 2025 Q2 | $0.11/W | $0.12/W | $0.13/W | $0.16/W |
| 2025 Q4 | $0.10/W | $0.11/W | $0.12/W | $0.15/W |
| 2026 Q1 (current) | $0.10-0.13/W | $0.10-0.13/W | $0.11-0.14/W | $0.13-0.16/W |
All prices FOB Shanghai, USD/Watt. Based on JUSTSOLAR factory quotations and pvXchange benchmark data.
56% Price Drop in 3 Years
TOPCon 600W dropped from $0.23/W (2023 Q1) to $0.10/W (2025 Q4) — a 56% reduction. Driven by oversupply, polysilicon price crash, and scale economies.
2026 Stabilization
Prices appear to have bottomed out. 2026 Q1 shows stabilization as weak manufacturers exit and demand growth catches up with supply. Long-term: modest +2-5%/yr from current lows.
Factors Driving Solar Panel Prices
Polysilicon Cost
High ImpactRaw material — 20-30% of module cost. Polysilicon price cycles drive quarterly price swings.
Silver Usage
Medium ImpactUsed in cell metallization. TOPCon uses less silver than HJT, helping TOPCon stay cheaper.
Glass & Aluminum
Medium ImpactDual-glass bifacial modules use more materials but have longer lifespan. Aluminum frame costs track LME prices.
Trade Tariffs
High ImpactUS AD/CVD adds 50-100%+ to Chinese modules. EU CBAM adds carbon cost. Africa/LatAm mostly duty-free.
Exchange Rates
Medium ImpactUSD-CNY fluctuations affect export prices. Most contracts priced in USD, protecting buyers from CNY strengthening.
Ocean Freight
Low-Medium ImpactChina-Europe freight ~$2500/40HQ (2026). China-Africa ~$3000. SE Asia ~$1000 due to proximity.
Demand Cycles
High ImpactEU installation rush Q2-Q3, US rush Q4 for ITC. Price dips in January-February when demand is low.
Manufacturing Capacity
High ImpactOversupply 2024-2025 drove prices to historic lows. 2026 some capacity rationalization as weak manufacturers exit market.
2026-2027 Price Forecast
Short-term (3-6 months)
Stable to slightly declining ($0.10 possible floor for TOPCon). Q2-Q3 European demand may push prices up 3-5% temporarily. Good window for buyers to lock in orders at historic lows.
Medium-term (6-18 months)
Modest increases likely (+5-10%) as weak manufacturers exit, polysilicon capacity normalizes, and demand grows 15-20% YoY globally. HJT premium may shrink as production scales.
Long-term (2-5 years)
Expect modest price stability ($0.10-0.12/W for TOPCon) with volatility driven by tariffs, trade policy, and climate finance. Tariffs on Chinese panels likely to increase — consider SE Asia origin.
Lock in Today's Prices
Solar panel prices are at historic lows. Contact Frank to secure a quote before prices rise.